The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1. How many storms will we see this year?
The official Atlantic hurricane season lasts from June 1 to November 30 (though hurricanes can happen at any time of the year). The forecasts here cover the Atlantic Basin—the area encompassing the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico.
Each year, a series of hurricane forecasts are issued from April through August by the noted hurricane experts at the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University (CSU). Additional forecasts are put out by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
When it comes to hurricanes, there are many indicators related to atmospheric and oceanic conditions that indicate what to expect. Keep in mind: Whatever the forecast, remember that it only takes one hurricane to make landfall and coastal residents should prepare for every hurricane season.
An above-normal number of storms is expected for the 2022 season:
- CSU’s latest extended range forecast (published June 2, 2022) predicts a season with a “well above-average” amount of storm activity. Currently, they are predicting a total of 20 named storms for the year, of which 10 will become hurricanes. Of the hurricanes that are expected to occur, 5 are expected to turn into major hurricanes. (“Major hurricanes” are storms reaching at least Category 3 strength in the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale.)
- CSU predicts an “above-average” chance (76%) of at least one major hurricane making landfall across the entire U.S. coastline, a 51% chance of a major hurricane making landfall along the East Coast (including the Florida peninsula), and a 50% chance along the Gulf Coast. Additionally, they predict that there is a 65% of a major hurricane tracking into the Caribbean.